man creatures. It is probable that it could be truíted to the falacious deductions of our reafon, which is flow in is operations; appears not, in any degree, during the ir£ years of infancy; and at beil is, in every age and period of human life, extremely liable to error and mikke. Tis more conformable to the ordinary widom of manure to fecure fo neceflary an aft of the mind, by fome infinct or mechanical tendency, which may be infallible in its operations, may discover itself at the £ appearance of life and thought, and may be independent of all the labour'd deductions of the understanding. As nature has taught us the me of our limbs, without giving us the knowlege of the mufcles and nerves, by which they are aftrated; fo has the implanted in us an inftinct, which carries forward the thought in a correfpondent courie to that which the has establish'd among external objects; tho' we are ignorant of those powers and forces, on which this regular courfe and fucceffion of objects totally depends.

ESS.

ESSAY VI.

Of PROBABILITY*,

HO' there be no fuch thing as Chance in the

THO

world; our ignorance of the real caufe of any event has the fame influence on the understanding, and begets a like fpecies of belief or opinion.

THERE is certainly a probability, which arifes from a fuperiority of chances on any fide; and according as this fuperiority encreafes, and furpaffes the oppofite chances, the probability receives a proportionable encrease, and begets ftill a higher degree of belief or affent to that fide, in which we difcover the fuperi

ority.

*Mr. Locke divides all arguments into demonstrative and probable. In this view, we must say, that 'tis only probable all men must die, or that the fun will rife to-morrow. But to conform our language more to common use, we hould divide arguments into demonftrations, proofs, and probabilities. By proofs meaning such arguments from experience as leave no room for doubt or oppofition.

ority. If a dye were mark'd with one figure or number of spots on four fides, and with another figure or number of fpots on the two remaining fides, it would be more probable, that the former should turn up than the latter; tho' if it had a thousand fides mark'd in the fame manner, and only one oppofite fide, the probability would be much higher, and our belief or expectation of the event more steady and secure. This procefs of the thought or reafoning may seem trivial and obvious; but to those, who confider it more narrowly, it may, perhaps, afford matter for very curious fpeculation.

It seems evident, that when the mind looks forward to discover the event, which may refult from the throw of fuch a dye, it confiders the turning up of each particular fide as alike probable; and this is the very nature of chance, to render all the particular events, comprehended in it, entirely equal. But finding a greater number of fides concur in the one event than the other, the mind is carry'd more frequently to that event, and meets it oftener, in revolving the various poffibilities or chances, on which the ultimate refult depends. This concurrence of feveral views in one particular event begets immediately, by an inexplicable contrivance of nature, the sentiment of belief, and gives that event the advantage over its antagonist, which is fupported by a fmaller

fmaller number of views, and recurs lefs frequently to the mind. If we allow, that belief is nothing but a firmer and ftronger conception of an object than what attends the mere fictions of the imagination, this operation may, perhaps, in fome measure, be accounted for. The concurrence of these several views or glimpfes imprints its idea more ftrongly on the imagination; gives it fuperior force and vigour; renders its influence on the paffions and affections more fenfible; and in a word, begets that reliance or fecurity, which conftitutes the nature of belief and opinion.

THE cafe is the fame with the probability of caufes as with that of chance. There are fome caufes, which are entirely uniform and constant in producing a particular effect; and no inftance has ever yet been found of any failure or irregularity in their operation. Fire has always burnt, and water fuffocated every human creature: The production of motion by impulfe and gravity is an univerfal law, which has hitherto admitted of no exception. But there are other causes which have been found more irregular and uncertain; nor has rhubarb prov'd always a purge, or opium a foporific to every one, who has taken these medicines. 'Tis true; when any cause fails of producing its ufual effect, philofophers ascribe not this to any irregularity in nature; but fuppofe, that fome fecret caufes, in the particular ftructure of parts,